A structural analysis of rental market conditions across Canada's six largest CMAs — separating base-year effects and supply-cycle dynamics from underlying demand fundamentals.
Average asking rent for two-bedroom units, all tenure types, by CMA. Quarterly from Q1 2019. Shaded band marks the 2022–2023 immigration surge — the single largest demand shock in the series. Select markets to isolate or compare.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 46-10-0092-01. Experimental quarterly asking rent statistics from major online rental platforms. ⚠️ Calgary Q2/Q3 2025 suppressed by Stats Can due to small sample — shown as gap. Q1 2019 and Q1/Q3 2025 are directly published anchor points; intermediate values reflect quarterly trajectory of the series.
All markets indexed to 100 at Q1 2019, enabling direct comparison of relative rent inflation regardless of absolute price levels. The 100 baseline is the reference: values above reflect cumulative appreciation since the pre-COVID anchor.
The divergence story in one view. Montréal has repriced by +71% from a low base, while Toronto sits essentially flat at +5% over six years — a structural divergence that headline YoY figures completely obscure. Vancouver's +27% reflects genuine appreciation beyond trend; Calgary and Edmonton show sharp cyclicality around a near-flat pre-2022 baseline.
Source: Stats Can 46-10-0092-01. Index calculated as (current rent ÷ Q1 2019 rent) × 100. Base values: Vancouver $2,490 · Toronto $2,560 · Calgary $1,430 · Edmonton $1,220 · Ottawa $1,550 · Montréal $1,130.
Asking rents plotted against an OLS trend line fitted through three annual data points (2017, 2018, Q1 2019). The shaded region shows cumulative overshoot or undershoot relative to where rents would be if the pre-COVID trajectory had continued uninterrupted. This is the cleanest separation of structural repricing from cyclical surge.
Reading the deviation. A positive deviation (above trend) indicates rents are structurally elevated beyond the long-run pre-COVID growth path. A return toward zero does not mean rents are falling — it means the cyclical overshoot is correcting. Most markets are correcting from extreme positive deviations, not declining into negative territory.
Methodology: 2017–2018 values back-extrapolated from CMHC RMS annual growth rates applied to Stats Can Q1 2019 anchor. OLS regression fitted through x=0 (2017), x=1 (2018), x=2 (Q1 2019). Trend extrapolated quarterly at x = 2 + i/4 for i = 0…26. ⚠️ 2017–2018 are estimates — verify against Stats Can Table 34-10-0133-01 before formal publication.
Three data points per market — Q1 2019 (pre-COVID baseline), the 2023 peak, and Q3 2025 (latest) — placed in direct comparison. This view makes the base-year effect immediately legible: the YoY decline narrative is comparing against the 2023 peak, not against structural equilibrium.
Sources: Q1 2019 and Q3 2025 from Stats Can 46-10-0092-01. Peak values from quarterly series maximum 2022–2024. Calgary Q3 2025 interpolated (Q2/Q3 flagged by Stats Can); Q1 2025 = $1,920 is last reliable Calgary data point.
Year-over-year percentage change in asking rents. This is the metric driving most market commentary in 2024–2025. Read alongside the trend deviation (View 03) and index (View 02) — the YoY figure is technically accurate but analytically incomplete without the base-year context.
Base-year effect in numbers. Toronto's -3.9% YoY (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024) sounds like a declining market. But Q3 2024 was itself only modestly above the long-run trend line. The comparable from 2019 shows just +5.1% over six years — suggesting the 2024 "peak" was not extreme by absolute standards, and the current correction is mechanical rather than distressed.
Source: Stats Can 46-10-0092-01, YoY calculated from same-quarter prior year. Calgary Q2/Q3 2025 omitted (suppressed by Stats Can).
Annual purpose-built rental completions (bars, right axis) overlaid on the asking rent index (line, left axis). The supply drought of 2017–2021, the completions surge launched into near-zero vacancy in 2022–2023, and the wave now landing in 2024–2025 are the mechanical explanation for both the rent spike and the subsequent correction.
The causal chain. Completions arriving in 2024–2025 were started in 2021–2022 at near-zero vacancy (Vancouver 0.9%, Toronto 1.5%, Calgary 1.4%). Developers were responding rationally to a demand signal. The ~24-month construction lag made the supply wave structurally unavoidable once those projects broke ground — meaning the 2024–2025 rent correction was predictable well in advance, and is not evidence of a market in distress.
Sources: Completions from CMHC RMS annual survey (Table 1.1.3, universe additions) and CMHC Housing Supply Reports (stock growth rates). ⚠️ Unit counts are estimates calibrated to CMHC published narrative and growth rates (e.g. Calgary +11% 2025, Vancouver +3.3% 2022). Verify against Stats Can 34-10-0066-01 (rental completions, annual by CMA) before formal publication. Rent index = Stats Can 46-10-0092-01, Q1 values.
Three panels showing the full supply picture: vacancy rates (the real-time clearing mechanism), annual stock growth (the structural shift in market depth), and units under construction as the forward supply commitment still in the pipeline. Together they answer where supply has already landed and what is still arriving.
Vacancy as a signal. Vacancy below ~2.5% historically corresponds with rent acceleration in Canadian markets. Above ~4% with stagnation or decline. The 2023 national trough at 1.5% — the tightest since the 1970s — meant any completions landing into that environment would have an outsized effect. Most markets are now normalising back toward the 2.5–4.0% zone, not overshooting into distress.
Sources: Vacancy rates from CMHC RMS annual surveys (published 2017–2025). Stock growth % from CMHC RMS universe change. Units under construction from CMHC Housing Supply Reports and Stats Can 34-10-0066-01. ⚠️ Units under construction are indicative peak-pipeline estimates (late 2024) — verify against Stats Can 34-10-0066-01 current monthly release.
A complete record of sources, estimation methodology, and verification flags for each data series used in this report. Flags are colour-coded: verified (green), estimated (amber), flagged for verification (red).
| Market | 2017→2018 growth | 2018→2019 growth | 2018 est. | 2017 est. | Q1 2019 anchor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver | +7.8% | +4.5% | $2,383 | $2,211 | $2,490 |
| Toronto | +4.5% | +3.5% | $2,473 | $2,367 | $2,560 |
| Calgary | +0.2% | +0.5% | $1,423 | $1,420 | $1,430 |
| Edmonton | +0.8% | +1.0% | $1,208 | $1,198 | $1,220 |
| Ottawa | +3.8% | +5.5% | $1,469 | $1,415 | $1,550 |
| Montréal | +3.2% | +4.5% | $1,081 | $1,047 | $1,130 |
Series mismatch note: CMHC RMS publishes occupied rents (sitting tenants, subject to rent control) while Stats Can 46-10-0092-01 publishes asking rents (new market leases). These series are not directly comparable in level — occupied rents are structurally lower (e.g. Vancouver 2019: CMHC $1,748 vs. Stats Can $2,490, a 42% gap). Growth rates, however, are broadly comparable and that is what was used for back-extrapolation. All values in this dashboard use the Stats Can asking rent series throughout for internal consistency.